Pickleball is an imperfect roadmap for U.S. padel, X3Insights Research finds

X3Insights Research has published its first report, The Pickleball Precedent. It tests a comparison padel investors often make: that pickleball's rise from niche pastime to mass sport shows what comes next for padel in the U.S. X3Insights Research and X3Insights News are both part of X3Insights.

The report's short answer is that the two sports attract players in similar ways, but their courts get built in opposite ways. That difference changes the investment case.

Padel starts smaller than pickleball did

The Sports & Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) counted 1.07 million American padel players in 2025, its first year tracking the sport, USA Padel reported. Pickleball already had 3.46 million players in 2019, before its boom. Padel's 238,000 core players, those who played at least eight times in the year, are about one-sixth of pickleball's 1.4 million core players in 2020.

The momentum has changed sides. In the first half of 2026, pickleball participation grew 1.3% while padel's grew 14.5%, according to SFIA figures reported by Athletech News and Padel Mecca. The half-year SFIA report is available to members only, so the report could not check the original.

Courts are the decisive difference

Pickleball grew on courts nobody had to build. In mid-2023 more than 70% of known pickleball courts were temporary: lines painted on tennis courts, gym floors and multi-use slabs. A padel court is a purpose-built 10-by-20-meter enclosure that cannot be laid over an existing court. U.S. cost guides cited in the report put one court at roughly $40,000 to $110,000, and indoor play needs at least 6 meters (19.7 feet) of clear height.

As a result, padel grows at the pace capital can build courts. The U.S. added 352 padel courts in 2024 and 330 in 2025, according to Playtomic's annual reports, including the 2026 Global Padel Report. Pickleball added more than 18,000 known courts in 2024 alone.

The report scores 12 features of pickleball's growth against padel in the U.S. today. Five carry over, three partly carry over and four do not. The four that do not concern supply, the price to play and early adopters.

What pickleball's shakeout shows

Pickleball's private club wave arrived two to three years after its participation surge and kept going after demand flattened. Six tracked franchise brands grew from 145 to 199 open clubs between January and September 2026, The Dink reported.